KOKC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

56%

40%

36%

34%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 51.2¢Risks 51.15u

EPSNO 48.8¢Risks 48.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.85u · EPS −48.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	44.8%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	0.0%	23.8%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	28.1%	25.7%	0.0%	—	25.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	33.7%	48.5%	13.2%	—	17.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	18.9%	15.5%	16.9%	—	20.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	20.1%	36.7%	17.9%	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	43.5%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	20.7%	19.5%	13.4%	—	14.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	9.9%	22.6%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	16.1%	24.1%	13.6%	—	17.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	11.2%	39.3%	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	8.3%	23.0%	13.4%	—	9.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	13.7%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	18.3%	17.1%	7.5%	—	19.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	14.0%	19.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	11.3%	15.7%	6.7%	—	11.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	21.3%	17.6%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	21.3%	18.3%	6.6%	15.5%	28.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	17.5%	0.0%	—	14.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	69%	83.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	82.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	40%	80.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	79.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	80.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗