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KOKC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
69%
AIFS
56%
ICON
40%
HRES
36%
EPS
34%
Consensus
52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 51.2¢Risks 51.15u
VS
EPSNO 48.8¢Risks 48.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.85u · EPS −48.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 57.3% · 2026-10-17T04:42:09+00:00AIFS Single: 57.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00AIFS Single: 57.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00AIFS Single: 57.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-17T04:42:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 33.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.8% · 2026-10-17T04:42:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00IFS HRES: 28.2% · 2026-10-17T04:42:09+00:00IFS HRES: 28.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00IFS HRES: 28.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00IFS HRES: 28.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-17T04:42:09+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00ICON: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00ICON: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00ICON: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00ICON: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00ICON: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00ICON: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00ICON: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00ICON: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00ICON: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00ICON: 40.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:0010-17 04:4210-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:42:09+00:0057.3%18.0%71.8%28.2%45.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:0057.3%18.0%68.1%28.2%45.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:0057.3%18.0%68.1%28.2%45.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:0057.3%18.0%68.1%28.2%45.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:0059.6%18.0%68.1%36.5%40.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:0059.6%18.0%68.1%36.5%40.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:0059.6%18.0%68.1%36.5%40.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:0059.6%18.0%68.1%36.5%40.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:0059.6%18.0%68.1%36.5%40.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:0059.6%33.6%68.7%36.5%40.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:0059.6%33.6%68.7%36.5%40.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:0059.6%33.6%68.7%36.5%40.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:0055.6%33.6%68.7%36.5%40.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:0055.6%33.6%68.7%36.5%40.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 269%83.5°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend67%83.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
AIFS Single56%82.2°F5.0°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%82.0°F5.2°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
ICON40%80.0°F6.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES36%79.5°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble34%80.1°F3.3°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗