KOKC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

39%

34%

29%

12%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.6¢Risks 25.60u

ICONNO 74.4¢Risks 74.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.40u · ICON −74.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:01+00:00	55.0%	24.0%	38.4%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	55.0%	24.0%	38.4%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	55.0%	24.0%	38.4%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	55.0%	24.0%	38.4%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	55.0%	24.0%	40.5%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	55.0%	24.0%	40.5%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	55.0%	30.9%	40.5%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	55.0%	30.9%	40.5%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	48.6%	30.9%	40.7%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	48.6%	30.9%	40.7%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	48.6%	25.8%	40.7%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	48.6%	25.8%	40.7%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	48.6%	25.8%	47.6%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	48.6%	25.8%	47.6%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	48.6%	25.8%	47.6%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	48.6%	25.8%	47.6%	44.4%	0.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	45.1%	25.8%	47.6%	52.5%	51.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	45.1%	25.8%	47.6%	52.5%	51.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	45.1%	25.8%	47.6%	52.5%	51.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	45.1%	25.8%	47.6%	52.5%	51.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	45.1%	25.8%	53.9%	52.5%	51.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	45.1%	25.8%	53.9%	52.5%	51.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	45.1%	25.8%	53.9%	52.5%	51.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	59.0%	25.8%	53.9%	52.5%	51.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	59.0%	25.8%	53.9%	52.5%	51.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	59.0%	25.8%	53.9%	52.5%	51.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	59.0%	25.8%	53.9%	52.5%	51.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:24+00:00	47.6%	15.9%	51.0%	19.4%	36.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	47.6%	15.9%	56.8%	19.4%	36.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	47.6%	15.9%	56.8%	19.4%	36.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	47.6%	15.9%	56.8%	19.4%	36.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	47.6%	15.9%	56.8%	19.4%	36.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:31+00:00	42.2%	15.9%	56.8%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	42.2%	15.9%	56.8%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	42.2%	15.9%	56.8%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	42.2%	15.9%	56.8%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:54+00:00	42.2%	17.2%	47.9%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	42.2%	17.2%	47.9%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	42.2%	17.2%	47.9%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	42.2%	17.2%	47.9%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	40.5%	17.2%	47.9%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00	40.5%	17.2%	47.9%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	40.5%	15.9%	47.9%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	40.5%	15.9%	47.9%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	40.5%	15.9%	41.5%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	40.5%	15.9%	41.5%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	40.5%	15.9%	41.5%	15.4%	21.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	38.0%	15.9%	41.5%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	38.0%	15.9%	41.5%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	38.0%	15.9%	41.5%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	38.0%	15.9%	41.5%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	38.0%	15.9%	41.5%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	38.0%	15.9%	34.4%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	38.0%	15.9%	34.4%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	38.0%	15.9%	34.4%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	39.7%	15.9%	34.4%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	39.7%	15.9%	34.4%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	39.7%	15.9%	34.4%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	39.7%	15.9%	34.4%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00	39.7%	15.9%	34.4%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	39.7%	15.9%	47.9%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	39.7%	15.9%	47.9%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	39.7%	15.9%	47.9%	14.0%	13.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:24+00:00	41.7%	15.9%	47.9%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	41.7%	15.9%	47.9%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	41.7%	15.9%	47.9%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	41.7%	15.9%	47.9%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	41.7%	15.9%	47.9%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:00	41.7%	22.0%	38.3%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	41.7%	22.0%	38.3%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	41.7%	22.0%	38.3%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	32.8%	22.0%	38.3%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	32.8%	22.0%	38.3%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:44+00:00	32.8%	22.8%	38.3%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	32.8%	22.8%	38.3%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	32.8%	22.8%	38.3%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	32.8%	22.8%	25.6%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	32.8%	22.8%	25.6%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	32.8%	22.8%	25.6%	22.3%	15.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	31.9%	22.8%	25.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	31.9%	22.8%	25.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	31.9%	22.8%	25.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	31.9%	22.8%	25.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	31.9%	22.8%	25.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	31.9%	22.8%	28.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	31.9%	22.8%	28.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	31.9%	22.8%	28.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	38.0%	22.8%	28.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	38.0%	22.8%	28.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	38.0%	22.8%	28.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-20T04:04:59+00:00	38.0%	22.8%	28.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	38.0%	22.8%	28.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	38.0%	22.8%	47.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	38.0%	22.8%	47.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	38.0%	22.8%	47.6%	14.1%	10.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	39.3%	22.8%	47.6%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	39.3%	22.8%	47.6%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	39.3%	22.8%	47.6%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	39.3%	22.8%	47.6%	14.1%	11.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00	39.3%	33.7%	38.6%	28.7%	11.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	39.3%	33.7%	38.6%	28.7%	11.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	39.3%	33.7%	38.6%	28.7%	11.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	39.3%	33.7%	38.6%	28.7%	11.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	39%	81.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	81.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	80.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	80.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	78.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	77.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261022-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗