KOKC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

38%

34%

29%

12%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.90u

ICONNO 74.1¢Risks 74.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.10u · ICON −74.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	0.8%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	38.4%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	0.0%	18.9%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	22.4%	20.4%	0.0%	—	20.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	27.2%	41.3%	9.6%	—	13.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	14.2%	11.4%	12.5%	—	15.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	14.9%	29.5%	13.1%	—	13.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	35.6%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	15.2%	14.3%	9.3%	—	10.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	6.7%	16.7%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	11.3%	17.8%	9.4%	—	12.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	7.5%	31.0%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	5.3%	16.6%	9.0%	—	6.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	9.2%	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	12.6%	11.6%	4.6%	—	13.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	9.2%	13.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	7.1%	10.3%	4.0%	—	7.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	14.4%	11.6%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	14.3%	11.9%	3.8%	9.9%	19.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	11.2%	0.0%	—	9.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	39%	81.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	81.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	80.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	80.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	78.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	77.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261022-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗