KOKC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

40%

30%

15%

10%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 25.6¢Risks 25.60u

EPSNO 74.4¢Risks 74.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +74.40u · EPS −74.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	32.4%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	0.0%	14.7%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	17.5%	15.8%	0.0%	—	15.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	21.5%	34.3%	6.9%	—	10.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	10.3%	8.1%	9.0%	—	11.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	10.8%	23.0%	9.3%	—	9.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	28.3%	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	10.8%	10.1%	6.3%	—	7.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	11.9%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	7.7%	12.7%	6.2%	—	8.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	4.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	3.2%	11.5%	5.8%	—	3.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	5.9%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	8.2%	7.5%	2.7%	—	9.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	5.7%	8.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	4.2%	6.4%	2.2%	—	4.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	9.2%	7.2%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	9.0%	7.3%	2.0%	5.9%	13.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	6.7%	0.0%	—	5.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	82.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	82.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	30%	80.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	77.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	79.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗