KOKC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

53%

47%

36%

33%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.2¢Risks 48.20u

EPSNO 51.8¢Risks 51.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.80u · EPS −51.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	0.3%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	1.2%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	0.5%	23.3%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	17.5%	18.9%	0.4%	—	19.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	14.4%	14.8%	19.4%	—	17.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	10.0%	16.4%	10.0%	—	16.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	23.5%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	19.5%	20.1%	11.1%	—	20.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	33.4%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	11.6%	14.8%	22.5%	—	12.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	4.1%	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	19.6%	13.1%	11.8%	—	24.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	16.1%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	12.9%	15.4%	14.4%	—	16.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	19.0%	13.7%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	17.7%	18.3%	11.6%	8.2%	32.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	7.0%	—	—	18.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	83.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	81.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	47%	80.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	79.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	79.6°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗