KOKC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

53%

47%

36%

33%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.2¢Risks 48.20u

EPSNO 51.8¢Risks 51.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.80u · EPS −51.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:45+00:00	45.8%	39.0%	46.1%	25.6%	14.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	45.8%	39.0%	46.1%	25.7%	14.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:37+00:00	45.8%	33.3%	46.1%	25.7%	14.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	45.8%	33.3%	46.1%	25.7%	14.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	45.8%	33.3%	46.1%	25.7%	14.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	45.8%	33.3%	53.9%	25.7%	14.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	45.8%	33.3%	53.9%	25.7%	14.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	45.8%	33.3%	53.9%	25.7%	14.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	50.0%	33.3%	53.9%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00	50.0%	33.3%	53.9%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	50.0%	33.3%	53.9%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	50.0%	33.3%	53.9%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	50.0%	33.3%	53.9%	35.5%	47.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	50.0%	33.3%	63.1%	35.5%	47.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	50.0%	33.3%	63.1%	35.5%	47.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	50.0%	33.3%	63.1%	35.5%	47.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	52.8%	33.3%	63.1%	35.5%	47.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	52.8%	33.3%	63.1%	35.5%	47.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	52.8%	33.3%	63.1%	35.5%	47.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	52.8%	33.3%	63.1%	35.5%	47.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	83.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	81.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	47%	80.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	79.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	79.6°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗