KOKC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

35%

34%

32%

15%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.1¢Risks 27.05u

ICONNO 73.0¢Risks 72.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.95u · ICON −72.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:24+00:00	43.4%	16.5%	37.4%	19.8%	28.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	43.4%	16.5%	47.4%	19.8%	28.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	43.4%	16.5%	47.4%	19.8%	28.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	43.4%	16.5%	47.4%	19.8%	28.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	43.4%	16.5%	47.4%	19.8%	28.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:31+00:00	41.2%	16.5%	47.4%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	41.2%	16.5%	47.4%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	41.2%	16.5%	47.4%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	41.2%	16.5%	47.4%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:54+00:00	41.2%	18.2%	36.7%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	41.2%	18.2%	36.7%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	41.2%	18.2%	36.7%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	41.2%	18.2%	36.7%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	40.4%	18.2%	36.7%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00	40.4%	18.2%	36.7%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	40.4%	15.9%	36.7%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	40.4%	15.9%	36.7%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	40.4%	15.9%	34.0%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	40.4%	15.9%	34.0%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	40.4%	15.9%	34.0%	23.4%	33.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	35.8%	15.9%	34.0%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	35.8%	15.9%	34.0%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	35.8%	15.9%	34.0%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	35.8%	15.9%	34.0%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	35.8%	15.9%	34.0%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	35.8%	15.9%	27.2%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	35.8%	15.9%	27.2%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	35.8%	15.9%	27.2%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	38.9%	15.9%	27.2%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	38.9%	15.9%	27.2%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	38.9%	15.9%	27.2%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	38.9%	15.9%	27.2%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00	38.9%	15.9%	27.2%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	38.9%	15.9%	36.7%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	38.9%	15.9%	36.7%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	38.9%	15.9%	36.7%	17.6%	25.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:24+00:00	41.4%	15.9%	36.7%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	41.4%	15.9%	36.7%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	41.4%	15.9%	36.7%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	41.4%	15.9%	36.7%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	41.4%	15.9%	36.7%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:00	41.4%	22.9%	31.5%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	41.4%	22.9%	31.5%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	41.4%	22.9%	31.5%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	32.4%	22.9%	31.5%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	32.3%	22.9%	31.4%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:44+00:00	32.3%	23.8%	31.4%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	32.3%	23.8%	31.4%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	32.3%	23.8%	31.4%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	32.3%	23.8%	22.6%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	32.3%	23.8%	22.6%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	32.3%	23.8%	22.6%	29.5%	25.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	32.3%	23.8%	22.6%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	32.3%	23.8%	22.6%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	32.3%	23.8%	22.6%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	32.3%	23.8%	22.6%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	32.3%	23.8%	22.6%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	32.3%	23.8%	24.2%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	32.3%	23.8%	24.2%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	32.3%	23.8%	24.2%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	39.7%	23.8%	24.2%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	39.7%	23.8%	24.2%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	39.7%	23.8%	24.2%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:59+00:00	39.7%	23.8%	24.2%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	39.7%	23.8%	24.2%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	39.7%	23.8%	42.5%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	39.7%	23.8%	42.5%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	39.7%	23.8%	42.5%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	38.9%	23.8%	42.5%	24.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	38.9%	23.8%	42.5%	24.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	38.9%	23.8%	42.5%	24.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	38.9%	23.8%	42.5%	24.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00	38.9%	33.8%	31.7%	35.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	38.9%	33.8%	31.7%	35.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	38.9%	33.8%	31.7%	35.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	38.9%	33.8%	31.7%	35.2%	15.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	39%	81.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	80.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	81.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	80.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	78.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	12%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261023-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗