KOKC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

35%

34%

32%

15%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.0¢Risks 27.00u

ICONNO 73.0¢Risks 73.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.00u · ICON −73.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	0.3%	18.4%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	13.4%	14.5%	0.2%	—	15.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	10.6%	10.9%	14.8%	—	13.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	7.0%	12.2%	7.0%	—	12.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	17.9%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	14.5%	14.9%	7.8%	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	26.3%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	8.0%	10.4%	16.8%	—	9.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	2.5%	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	14.1%	9.0%	8.0%	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	11.2%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	8.6%	10.6%	9.8%	—	11.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	13.2%	9.2%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	12.1%	12.6%	7.5%	5.1%	24.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	4.2%	—	—	12.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	39%	81.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	80.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	81.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	80.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	78.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	12%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261023-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗