KOKC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

30%

24%

16%

11%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.6¢Risks 23.60u

EPSNO 76.4¢Risks 76.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.40u · EPS −76.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	0.5%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	0.2%	14.3%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	9.9%	10.9%	0.1%	—	11.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	7.6%	7.9%	10.9%	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	4.8%	8.7%	4.8%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	13.2%	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	10.4%	10.8%	5.3%	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	20.1%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	5.3%	7.1%	12.0%	—	6.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	1.5%	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	9.7%	5.9%	5.2%	—	13.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	7.5%	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	5.5%	7.0%	6.3%	—	7.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	8.8%	5.9%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	7.9%	8.2%	4.6%	3.0%	17.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	2.4%	—	—	8.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	81.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	81.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	24%	78.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	76.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	78.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261023-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗