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KOKC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
7%
ICON
6%
WN2
4%
HRES
3%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 3.8¢Risks 0.94u
VS
EPSNO 96.2¢Risks 24.06u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.06u · EPS −24.06u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-08 12:0010-14 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:005.9%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.0%————1.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:001.2%————0.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:002.8%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:004.4%————1.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:003.1%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.3%————0.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:000.1%————0.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:002.7%————0.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:001.9%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.0%————1.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.3%————2.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.6%————1.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:002.0%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:002.2%————1.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:003.3%—0.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.4%—0.0%——0.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:003.6%—15.5%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:005.2%————0.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.5%—1.7%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:004.9%————1.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:002.4%—0.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:001.5%—0.0%——1.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:003.2%—0.4%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:001.3%0.0%1.8%——1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:001.6%—2.5%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:001.9%0.9%1.1%0.0%—1.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:001.9%—1.0%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:002.2%0.6%0.6%1.0%—0.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.2%—0.6%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.9%0.2%0.6%0.2%—0.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.1%—1.1%——0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.0%0.7%0.7%0.2%—0.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.8%—1.9%——0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.5%0.2%0.3%0.8%—0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.5%0.0%0.3%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.4%0.2%0.2%—0.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.3%0.2%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%—0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.3%0.1%——0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%——0.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast18%84.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
AIFS Single7%81.6°F5.4°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
ICON6%78.5°F7.2°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%81.0°F4.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES3%76.9°F6.6°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
National Blend3%83.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%78.7°F3.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 19:37 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Oklahoma City · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗