KOKC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 3.8¢Risks 0.94u

EPSNO 96.2¢Risks 24.06u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.06u · EPS −24.06u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	8.2%	1.2%	7.1%	2.9%	19.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00	8.2%	1.2%	7.1%	2.9%	19.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	8.2%	1.2%	7.1%	2.9%	19.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	8.2%	1.2%	7.1%	2.9%	19.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	8.2%	1.2%	7.1%	5.3%	19.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	8.2%	1.2%	10.8%	5.4%	19.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	8.2%	1.2%	10.8%	5.4%	19.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	8.2%	1.2%	10.8%	5.4%	19.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	9.3%	1.2%	10.8%	5.4%	19.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	9.3%	1.2%	10.8%	5.4%	19.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	9.3%	1.2%	10.8%	5.4%	19.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	9.3%	1.2%	10.8%	5.4%	19.1%
2026-10-17T04:42:11+00:00	9.3%	1.2%	10.8%	5.4%	19.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	9.3%	1.2%	11.6%	5.4%	19.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	9.3%	1.2%	11.6%	5.4%	19.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	9.3%	1.2%	11.6%	5.4%	19.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00	9.2%	1.2%	11.6%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	9.2%	1.2%	11.6%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	9.2%	1.2%	11.6%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	9.2%	1.2%	11.6%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	9.2%	1.2%	11.6%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	9.2%	0.5%	7.0%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	9.2%	0.5%	7.0%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	9.2%	0.5%	7.0%	7.5%	7.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	6.2%	0.5%	7.0%	7.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	6.2%	0.6%	7.0%	7.5%	7.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	6.2%	0.3%	7.0%	7.5%	7.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	6.2%	0.3%	7.0%	7.5%	7.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	6.2%	0.3%	4.6%	7.5%	7.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	6.2%	0.3%	4.6%	7.5%	7.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	6.2%	0.3%	4.6%	7.5%	7.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	6.2%	0.3%	4.6%	7.5%	7.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	4.6%	2.8%	6.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	4.6%	2.8%	6.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	4.6%	2.8%	6.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	4.6%	2.8%	6.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	3.5%	2.8%	6.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	3.5%	2.8%	6.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	3.5%	2.8%	6.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	3.5%	2.8%	6.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	7.2%	0.3%	3.5%	2.8%	6.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	7.2%	0.3%	3.5%	2.8%	6.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	7.2%	0.3%	3.5%	2.8%	6.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	18%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	81.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	6%	78.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	81.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	76.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	78.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 19:37 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Oklahoma City · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗