KOKC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

28%

27%

17%

15%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.3¢Risks 12.17u

HRESNO 75.6¢Risks 37.82u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.82u · HRES −37.82u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	13.0%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	0.0%	7.5%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	2.9%	13.4%	0.0%	—	10.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	9.6%	21.5%	3.9%	—	12.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	7.3%	13.4%	15.5%	—	9.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	10.0%	14.0%	6.2%	—	15.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	4.9%	10.1%	8.3%	—	12.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	2.1%	12.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	9.4%	14.1%	6.2%	9.0%	20.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	12.5%	—	—	14.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	80.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	79.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	27%	76.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	78.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	75.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261024-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 83°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗