KOKC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

28%

27%

17%

15%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.3¢Risks 12.17u

HRESNO 75.6¢Risks 37.82u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.82u · HRES −37.82u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00	39.7%	24.8%	38.5%	17.3%	5.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	39.7%	24.8%	38.5%	17.3%	5.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	39.7%	24.8%	38.5%	17.3%	5.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	39.7%	24.8%	38.5%	17.3%	5.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	39.7%	24.8%	38.5%	17.3%	5.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	39.7%	24.0%	43.0%	17.3%	5.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	39.7%	24.0%	43.0%	17.3%	5.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	39.7%	24.0%	43.0%	17.3%	5.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	34.5%	24.0%	43.0%	17.3%	5.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	34.5%	24.0%	43.0%	17.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	34.5%	17.0%	43.0%	17.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	34.5%	17.0%	43.0%	17.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	34.5%	17.0%	38.5%	17.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	34.5%	17.0%	38.5%	17.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	34.5%	17.0%	38.5%	17.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	34.5%	17.0%	38.5%	17.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	29.5%	17.0%	38.5%	14.9%	27.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	29.5%	17.0%	38.5%	14.9%	27.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	29.5%	17.0%	38.5%	14.9%	27.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	29.5%	17.0%	38.5%	14.9%	27.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	29.5%	17.0%	28.5%	14.9%	27.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	29.5%	17.0%	28.5%	14.9%	27.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	29.5%	17.0%	28.5%	14.9%	27.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	29.5%	17.0%	28.5%	14.9%	27.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	33.8%	17.0%	28.5%	14.9%	27.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	33.8%	17.0%	28.5%	14.9%	27.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	33.8%	17.0%	28.5%	14.9%	27.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	80.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	79.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	27%	76.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	78.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	75.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261024-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 83°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗