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KOKC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
96%
WN2
92%
AIFS
86%
ICON
80%
HRES
72%
Consensus
86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 84.2¢Risks 84.20u
VS
HRESNO 15.8¢Risks 15.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +15.80u · HRES −15.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 61.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:00+00:00IFS HRES: 61.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 61.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 61.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 61.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 61.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS HRES: 61.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 61.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 61.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS HRES: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 72.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:00+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00ICON: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00ICON: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00ICON: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:00+00:0085.9%88.9%83.2%61.3%73.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0085.9%88.9%83.2%61.3%73.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:0085.9%88.9%88.1%61.3%73.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0085.9%88.9%88.1%61.3%73.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0085.9%88.9%88.1%61.3%73.6%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:0086.3%88.9%88.1%61.3%80.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0086.3%88.9%88.1%61.3%80.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0086.3%88.9%88.1%61.3%80.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:0086.3%88.9%88.1%61.3%80.3%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:0086.3%96.2%91.7%72.2%80.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0086.3%96.2%91.7%72.2%80.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0086.3%96.2%91.7%72.2%80.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0086.3%96.2%91.7%72.2%80.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble96%80.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 292%80.2°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single86%79.9°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON80%79.7°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES72%77.9°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%75.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend47%74.0°F6.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗