KOKC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 20 · 16:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

86%

80%

72%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 84.3¢Risks 84.35u

HRESNO 15.7¢Risks 15.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +15.65u · HRES −15.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	48.8%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	52.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	45.5%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.0%	1.0%	11.4%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	15.3%	48.6%	1.8%	—	58.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	44.9%	44.2%	39.9%	—	55.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	56.8%	34.4%	62.0%	—	45.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	69.2%	54.8%	47.6%	54.8%	59.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	43.5%	—	—	59.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	80.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	80.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	79.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	79.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	77.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	74.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗