KOKC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 20 · 16:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

86%

80%

72%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 84.3¢Risks 84.35u

HRESNO 15.7¢Risks 15.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +15.65u · HRES −15.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T16:18:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:05:00+00:00	85.9%	88.9%	83.2%	61.3%	73.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	85.9%	88.9%	83.2%	61.3%	73.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	85.9%	88.9%	88.1%	61.3%	73.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	85.9%	88.9%	88.1%	61.3%	73.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	85.9%	88.9%	88.1%	61.3%	73.6%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	86.3%	88.9%	88.1%	61.3%	80.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	86.3%	88.9%	88.1%	61.3%	80.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	86.3%	88.9%	88.1%	61.3%	80.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	86.3%	88.9%	88.1%	61.3%	80.3%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00	86.3%	96.2%	91.7%	72.2%	80.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	86.3%	96.2%	91.7%	72.2%	80.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	86.3%	96.2%	91.7%	72.2%	80.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	86.3%	96.2%	91.7%	72.2%	80.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	86.3%	96.2%	91.8%	72.2%	80.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	86.3%	96.2%	91.8%	72.2%	80.3%
2026-10-20T15:32:24+00:00	86.3%	96.5%	91.8%	72.2%	80.3%
2026-10-20T16:18:00+00:00	86.3%	96.5%	91.8%	72.2%	80.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	80.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	80.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	79.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	79.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	77.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	74.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗