KOKC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

75%

70%

64%

49%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.7¢Risks 62.65u

HRESNO 37.3¢Risks 37.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.35u · HRES −37.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	36.9%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	33.0%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	0.4%	6.2%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	8.5%	34.9%	0.7%	—	44.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	31.0%	30.4%	26.6%	—	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	41.7%	21.6%	46.9%	—	30.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	54.0%	39.0%	32.3%	39.0%	43.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	28.3%	—	—	43.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	76%	80.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	78.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	79.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	64%	79.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	77.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	76.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗