KOKC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

75%

70%

64%

49%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.7¢Risks 62.65u

HRESNO 37.3¢Risks 37.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.35u · HRES −37.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:46+00:00	75.3%	74.7%	76.0%	56.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	75.3%	74.7%	76.0%	56.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	75.3%	74.7%	76.0%	56.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	75.3%	74.7%	67.4%	56.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	75.3%	74.7%	67.4%	56.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	75.3%	74.7%	67.4%	56.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	72.3%	74.7%	67.4%	49.4%	63.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	72.3%	74.7%	67.4%	49.4%	63.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	72.3%	74.7%	67.4%	49.4%	63.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	72.3%	74.7%	67.4%	49.4%	63.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	72.3%	74.7%	67.4%	49.4%	63.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	72.3%	74.7%	70.4%	49.4%	63.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	72.3%	74.7%	70.4%	49.4%	63.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	72.3%	74.7%	70.4%	49.4%	63.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	75.9%	74.7%	70.4%	49.4%	63.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	75.9%	74.7%	70.4%	49.4%	63.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	75.9%	74.7%	70.4%	49.4%	63.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	76%	80.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	78.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	79.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	64%	79.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	77.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	76.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗