KOKC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

76%

75%

75%

74%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 78.5¢Risks 19.61u

AIFSNO 21.6¢Risks 5.39u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +5.39u · AIFS −5.39u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	31.3%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	31.3%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	5.1%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.7%	55.4%	—	—	56.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	51.4%	8.2%	6.0%	—	50.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	59.4%	45.6%	7.6%	45.6%	45.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	4.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	77.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	77.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	75%	77.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	75.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	76.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	72.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗