KOKC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

54%

53%

28%

18%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.3¢Risks 37.25u

HRESNO 62.7¢Risks 62.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.75u · HRES −62.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	13.7%	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	13.2%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	1.1%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	0.1%	29.4%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	25.2%	1.8%	1.2%	—	24.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	31.0%	19.9%	1.5%	19.9%	19.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	56%	77.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	77.1°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	53%	77.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	77.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	73.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	70.7°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261026-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗