KOKC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

54%

53%

28%

18%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.3¢Risks 37.25u

HRESNO 62.7¢Risks 62.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.75u · HRES −62.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:00	49.3%	55.4%	50.8%	17.6%	8.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	49.3%	55.4%	50.8%	17.6%	8.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	49.3%	55.4%	50.8%	17.6%	8.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	64.3%	55.4%	50.8%	17.6%	8.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	64.3%	55.4%	50.8%	17.6%	8.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:46+00:00	64.3%	56.1%	50.8%	17.6%	8.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	64.3%	56.1%	50.8%	17.6%	8.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	64.3%	56.1%	50.8%	17.6%	8.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	64.3%	56.1%	20.0%	17.6%	8.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	64.3%	56.1%	20.0%	17.6%	8.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	64.3%	56.1%	20.0%	17.6%	8.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	58.3%	56.1%	20.0%	18.4%	53.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	58.3%	56.1%	20.0%	18.4%	53.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	58.3%	56.1%	20.0%	18.4%	53.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	58.3%	56.1%	20.0%	18.4%	53.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	58.3%	56.1%	20.0%	18.4%	53.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	58.3%	56.1%	27.8%	18.4%	53.2%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	58.3%	56.1%	27.8%	18.4%	53.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	58.3%	56.1%	27.8%	18.4%	53.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	54.2%	56.1%	27.8%	18.4%	53.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	54.2%	56.1%	27.8%	18.4%	53.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	54.2%	56.1%	27.8%	18.4%	53.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	56%	77.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	77.1°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	53%	77.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	77.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	73.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	70.7°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261026-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗