KOMA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 20 · 14:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

98%

97%

91%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 95.4¢Risks 23.85u

ICONNO 4.6¢Risks 1.15u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.15u · ICON −1.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	95.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	96.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	—	—	—	96.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	—	—	—	92.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	97.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	96.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	96.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	98.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	99.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	99.6%	—	—	97.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	—	90.7%	—	96.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	97.9%	98.2%	—	98.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	99.6%	100.0%	94.4%	—	98.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.2%	98.1%	99.4%	—	98.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	92.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	95.7%	67.0%	94.9%	—	97.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	93.0%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	94.1%	40.5%	83.9%	—	93.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	79.1%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	74.1%	56.4%	89.0%	—	89.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	81.0%	73.2%	—	—	87.8%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	81.7%	66.1%	91.4%	—	90.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	82.3%	84.8%	—	—	92.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	83.7%	72.4%	94.8%	—	89.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	80.2%	62.5%	—	—	88.4%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	76.2%	67.9%	78.7%	86.3%	88.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	80.2%	61.1%	77.7%	—	89.3%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	85.3%	81.7%	69.0%	83.2%	86.0%	92.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	88.6%	86.8%	66.4%	89.2%	—	93.4%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	97.2%	78.3%	89.4%	—	97.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	91.8%	99.4%	87.2%	98.1%	—	97.9%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	98.9%	98.1%	97.4%	89.3%	98.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	93.3%	94.2%	83.6%	98.6%	—	98.9%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	97.1%	73.2%	99.0%	87.8%	99.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	98.2%	70.2%	99.2%	—	100.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	98.8%	77.4%	99.1%	98.8%	99.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	99.1%	94.7%	99.4%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	73.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	99%	69.5°F	4.3°F	2026-09-20 00:00	0.0001
AIFS Single	98%	68.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 06:00	0.0003
IFS HRES	97%	66.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	0.0007
ICON	91%	64.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 00:00	0.0085
National Blend	67%	61.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 06:00	0.1116
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-20 02:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20260921-TMAX-GE60
Opened Sep 20 · 03:14 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 60°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗