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KOMA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 20 · 14:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
EPS
99%
AIFS
98%
HRES
97%
ICON
91%
Consensus
98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 95.4¢Risks 23.85u
VS
ICONNO 4.6¢Risks 1.15u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.15u · ICON −1.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-09-20T03:14:53+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-09-20T04:00:05+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-09-20T04:45:10+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-09-20T05:30:16+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-09-20T07:00:28+00:00AIFS Single: 98.7% · 2026-09-20T07:45:51+00:00AIFS Single: 98.7% · 2026-09-20T08:31:14+00:00AIFS Single: 98.7% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00AIFS Single: 98.7% · 2026-09-20T10:01:23+00:00AIFS Single: 98.7% · 2026-09-20T10:46:28+00:00AIFS Single: 98.7% · 2026-09-20T11:31:39+00:00AIFS Single: 98.7% · 2026-09-20T12:16:53+00:00AIFS Single: 98.7% · 2026-09-20T13:01:58+00:00AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-09-20T13:47:05+00:00AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-09-20T14:33:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-20T03:14:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-20T04:00:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-20T04:45:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-20T05:30:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-20T07:00:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-20T07:45:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-20T08:31:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-20T10:01:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-20T10:46:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.0% · 2026-09-20T11:31:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.0% · 2026-09-20T12:16:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.0% · 2026-09-20T13:01:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.0% · 2026-09-20T13:47:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.0% · 2026-09-20T14:33:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T03:14:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T04:00:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T04:45:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T05:30:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T07:00:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T07:45:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T08:31:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T10:01:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T10:46:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T11:31:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T12:16:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T13:01:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T13:47:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T14:33:36+00:00IFS HRES: 92.3% · 2026-09-20T03:14:53+00:00IFS HRES: 92.3% · 2026-09-20T04:00:05+00:00IFS HRES: 92.3% · 2026-09-20T04:45:10+00:00IFS HRES: 92.3% · 2026-09-20T05:30:16+00:00IFS HRES: 92.3% · 2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00IFS HRES: 92.3% · 2026-09-20T07:00:28+00:00IFS HRES: 97.4% · 2026-09-20T07:45:51+00:00IFS HRES: 97.4% · 2026-09-20T08:31:14+00:00IFS HRES: 97.4% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00IFS HRES: 97.4% · 2026-09-20T10:01:23+00:00IFS HRES: 97.4% · 2026-09-20T10:46:28+00:00IFS HRES: 97.4% · 2026-09-20T11:31:39+00:00IFS HRES: 97.4% · 2026-09-20T12:16:53+00:00IFS HRES: 97.4% · 2026-09-20T13:01:58+00:00IFS HRES: 97.4% · 2026-09-20T13:47:05+00:00IFS HRES: 97.4% · 2026-09-20T14:33:36+00:00ICON: 77.8% · 2026-09-20T03:14:53+00:00ICON: 77.8% · 2026-09-20T04:00:05+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-09-20T04:45:10+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-09-20T05:30:16+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-09-20T07:00:28+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-09-20T07:45:51+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-09-20T08:31:14+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-09-20T10:01:23+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-09-20T10:46:28+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-09-20T11:31:39+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-09-20T12:16:53+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-09-20T13:01:58+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-09-20T13:47:05+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-09-20T14:33:36+00:0009-20 03:1409-20 09:1609-20 14:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-20T14:33:36+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-20T03:14:53+00:0097.7%99.2%100.0%92.3%77.8%
2026-09-20T04:00:05+00:0097.7%99.2%100.0%92.3%77.8%
2026-09-20T04:45:10+00:0097.7%99.2%100.0%92.3%90.8%
2026-09-20T05:30:16+00:0097.7%99.2%100.0%92.3%90.8%
2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:0097.7%99.2%100.0%92.3%90.8%
2026-09-20T07:00:28+00:0097.7%99.2%100.0%92.3%90.8%
2026-09-20T07:45:51+00:0098.7%99.2%100.0%97.4%90.8%
2026-09-20T08:31:14+00:0098.7%99.2%100.0%97.4%90.8%
2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:0098.7%99.2%100.0%97.4%90.8%
2026-09-20T10:01:23+00:0098.7%99.2%100.0%97.4%90.8%
2026-09-20T10:46:28+00:0098.7%99.2%100.0%97.4%90.8%
2026-09-20T11:31:39+00:0098.7%99.0%100.0%97.4%90.8%
2026-09-20T12:16:53+00:0098.7%99.0%100.0%97.4%90.8%
2026-09-20T13:01:58+00:0098.7%99.0%100.0%97.4%90.8%
2026-09-20T13:47:05+00:0098.3%99.0%100.0%97.4%90.8%
2026-09-20T14:33:36+00:0098.3%99.0%100.0%97.4%90.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%73.8°F3.9°F2026-09-17 12:000.0000
IFS Ensemble99%69.5°F4.3°F2026-09-20 00:000.0001
AIFS Single98%68.2°F4.1°F2026-09-20 06:000.0003
IFS HRES97%66.8°F3.8°F2026-09-20 00:000.0007
ICON91%64.2°F3.5°F2026-09-20 00:000.0085
National Blend67%61.0°F3.5°F2026-09-20 06:000.1116
NWS forecast56%60.0°F3.1°F2026-09-20 02:000.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20260921-TMAX-GE60
Opened Sep 20 · 03:14 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 60°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗