KOMA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 21 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

91%

90%

88%

78%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.5¢Risks 43.77u

ICONNO 12.5¢Risks 6.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +6.23u · ICON −6.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	91.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	22.7%	—	—	90.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	85.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	99.0%	—	—	93.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	92.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	85.9%	98.9%	65.7%	—	85.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	90.4%	68.3%	95.2%	—	79.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	85.4%	93.2%	77.8%	—	71.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	56.4%	85.5%	86.4%	—	70.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	89.5%	93.2%	86.2%	—	65.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	61.8%	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	44.8%	92.0%	84.4%	—	67.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	47.3%	95.0%	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	57.3%	91.0%	85.1%	—	68.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	64.8%	94.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	50.0%	92.8%	74.5%	—	84.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	76.6%	97.0%	—	—	87.1%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	67.9%	74.1%	96.7%	92.6%	—	86.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	85.0%	98.7%	—	—	89.9%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	86.3%	98.1%	85.7%	5.3%	90.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	79.4%	98.6%	6.3%	—	89.3%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	81.0%	98.1%	93.9%	—	91.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	89.8%	99.8%	97.5%	—	93.4%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	92.0%	99.8%	97.7%	84.9%	95.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	94.0%	99.7%	98.6%	—	95.1%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	96.5%	99.8%	98.6%	91.6%	95.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	96.5%	99.8%	98.9%	—	97.5%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	98.2%	99.9%	99.2%	93.7%	98.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	91.4%	98.3%	99.9%	99.2%	—	99.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	98.2%	100.0%	99.5%	94.8%	98.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	99.8%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.0008
AIFS Single	91%	69.5°F	4.4°F	2026-09-20 18:00	0.0074
IFS Ensemble	90%	69.2°F	4.4°F	2026-09-20 00:00	0.0092
IFS HRES	88%	68.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-20 12:00	0.0144
ICON	78%	66.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-20 12:00	0.0484
National Blend	60%	64.0°F	2.0°F	2026-09-20 06:00	0.1600
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-20 14:00	0.2016

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20260923-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 64°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗