KOMA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 21 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

91%

90%

88%

78%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.5¢Risks 43.77u

ICONNO 12.5¢Risks 6.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +6.23u · ICON −6.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T02:35:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T15:13:05+00:00	79.8%	88.3%	97.1%	82.4%	56.7%
2026-09-19T15:58:15+00:00	79.8%	88.3%	97.1%	82.4%	56.7%
2026-09-19T16:43:20+00:00	79.8%	88.3%	97.1%	82.4%	67.9%
2026-09-19T17:28:26+00:00	79.8%	88.3%	97.1%	82.4%	67.9%
2026-09-19T18:13:30+00:00	79.8%	88.3%	97.1%	82.4%	67.9%
2026-09-19T18:58:40+00:00	79.8%	88.3%	97.1%	82.4%	67.9%
2026-09-19T19:43:44+00:00	82.1%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	67.9%
2026-09-19T20:28:49+00:00	82.1%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	67.9%
2026-09-19T21:13:54+00:00	82.1%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	67.9%
2026-09-19T21:58:58+00:00	82.1%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	67.9%
2026-09-19T22:44:04+00:00	82.1%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	67.9%
2026-09-19T23:29:09+00:00	82.1%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	67.8%
2026-09-20T00:14:15+00:00	82.1%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	67.8%
2026-09-20T00:59:24+00:00	82.1%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	67.8%
2026-09-20T01:44:32+00:00	87.2%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	67.8%
2026-09-20T02:29:38+00:00	87.2%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	67.8%
2026-09-20T03:14:53+00:00	87.2%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	67.8%
2026-09-20T04:00:05+00:00	87.2%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	67.8%
2026-09-20T04:45:10+00:00	87.2%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	55.1%
2026-09-20T05:30:16+00:00	87.2%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	55.1%
2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00	87.2%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	55.1%
2026-09-20T07:00:28+00:00	87.2%	88.3%	97.1%	70.3%	55.1%
2026-09-20T07:45:51+00:00	89.8%	88.3%	97.1%	86.1%	55.1%
2026-09-20T08:31:14+00:00	89.8%	88.3%	97.1%	86.1%	55.1%
2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00	89.8%	88.3%	97.1%	86.1%	55.1%
2026-09-20T10:01:23+00:00	89.8%	88.3%	97.1%	86.1%	55.1%
2026-09-20T10:46:28+00:00	89.8%	88.3%	97.1%	86.1%	55.1%
2026-09-20T11:31:39+00:00	89.8%	90.8%	97.1%	86.1%	55.1%
2026-09-20T12:16:53+00:00	89.8%	90.8%	97.1%	86.1%	55.1%
2026-09-20T13:01:58+00:00	89.8%	90.8%	97.1%	86.1%	55.1%
2026-09-20T13:47:05+00:00	87.7%	90.8%	97.1%	86.1%	55.1%
2026-09-20T14:33:36+00:00	87.2%	90.7%	97.1%	86.1%	55.1%
2026-09-20T15:18:57+00:00	87.2%	90.4%	97.1%	86.1%	55.1%
2026-09-20T16:04:08+00:00	87.2%	90.4%	97.1%	86.1%	55.1%
2026-09-20T16:49:14+00:00	87.2%	90.4%	97.1%	86.1%	78.0%
2026-09-20T17:34:19+00:00	87.2%	90.4%	97.1%	86.1%	78.0%
2026-09-20T18:19:24+00:00	87.2%	90.4%	97.1%	86.1%	78.0%
2026-09-20T19:04:32+00:00	87.2%	90.4%	97.1%	86.1%	78.0%
2026-09-20T19:49:37+00:00	91.7%	90.4%	97.1%	86.1%	78.0%
2026-09-20T20:34:42+00:00	91.7%	90.4%	97.1%	86.1%	78.0%
2026-09-20T21:19:47+00:00	91.7%	90.4%	97.1%	86.1%	78.0%
2026-09-20T22:04:51+00:00	91.7%	90.4%	97.1%	86.1%	78.0%
2026-09-20T22:50:00+00:00	91.7%	90.4%	97.1%	88.0%	78.0%
2026-09-20T23:35:06+00:00	91.7%	90.4%	97.1%	88.0%	78.0%
2026-09-21T00:20:15+00:00	91.7%	90.4%	97.1%	88.0%	78.0%
2026-09-21T01:05:25+00:00	91.7%	90.4%	97.1%	88.0%	78.0%
2026-09-21T01:50:31+00:00	91.4%	90.4%	97.1%	88.0%	78.0%
2026-09-21T02:35:36+00:00	91.4%	90.4%	97.1%	88.0%	78.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.0008
AIFS Single	91%	69.5°F	4.4°F	2026-09-20 18:00	0.0074
IFS Ensemble	90%	69.2°F	4.4°F	2026-09-20 00:00	0.0092
IFS HRES	88%	68.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-20 12:00	0.0144
ICON	78%	66.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-20 12:00	0.0484
National Blend	60%	64.0°F	2.0°F	2026-09-20 06:00	0.1600
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-20 14:00	0.2016

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20260923-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 64°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗