KOMA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NELow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

36%

34%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.4¢Risks 35.40u

EPSNO 64.6¢Risks 64.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.60u · EPS −64.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	31.8%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	37.2%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	55.4%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	65.7%	79.1%	4.2%	—	2.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	75.7%	0.3%	—	5.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	70.4%	33.0%	2.3%	—	5.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	91.3%	20.6%	6.4%	—	4.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	84.8%	16.8%	0.9%	—	6.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	24.6%	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	18.4%	14.6%	0.9%	—	6.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	16.1%	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	34.7%	11.5%	1.1%	—	9.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	43.4%	11.8%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	63.4%	13.1%	4.9%	—	15.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	62.8%	11.4%	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	71.5%	11.8%	3.5%	—	17.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	58.4%	13.8%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	58.7%	11.4%	0.8%	94.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	56.7%	9.7%	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	60.4%	10.0%	0.4%	—	10.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	52.4%	9.7%	0.9%	—	10.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	55.0%	8.5%	0.4%	90.5%	7.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	50.0%	8.2%	0.2%	—	6.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	34.3%	5.3%	0.1%	95.0%	5.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	37.7%	6.2%	0.1%	—	3.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	44.2%	4.0%	0.6%	97.3%	3.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	54.5%	3.4%	2.2%	—	17.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	53.2%	2.9%	8.9%	96.9%	25.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	30.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.4998
National Blend	54%	32.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.2916
ICON	36%	33.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1282
WeatherNext 2	34%	33.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1129
IFS HRES	5%	37.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0023
NWS forecast	<1%	41.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	37.1°F	1.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Omaha freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗