KOMA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

81%

81%

67%

48%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.1¢Risks 68.10u

ICONNO 31.9¢Risks 31.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.90u · ICON −31.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	1.1%	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	10.8%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	75.9%	47.9%	1.4%	—	65.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	91.6%	60.8%	57.3%	—	67.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	80.5%	66.3%	59.1%	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	76.4%	35.2%	58.7%	—	54.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	44.2%	49.2%	47.5%	—	38.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	24.6%	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	63.7%	80.4%	41.3%	—	42.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	51.8%	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	60.9%	76.3%	30.6%	—	40.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	53.8%	71.6%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	55.8%	66.1%	37.6%	—	43.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	55.0%	70.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	54.1%	71.5%	43.9%	—	45.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	52.1%	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	48.9%	71.8%	43.5%	—	44.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	47.8%	70.4%	0.0%	—	44.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	43.0%	77.6%	47.7%	—	52.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	56.0%	78.4%	47.6%	—	53.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	63.4%	82.6%	48.8%	45.0%	55.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	66.3%	78.1%	47.4%	—	51.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	61.9%	79.0%	40.7%	47.3%	51.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	78.9%	81.8%	40.3%	—	59.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	87.0%	87.0%	50.0%	78.8%	70.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	89.5%	79.8%	39.5%	—	54.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.3%	87.5%	82.9%	33.1%	83.9%	63.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	98.7%	90.1%	69.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	67.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0132
IFS Ensemble	81%	67.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0369
AIFS Single	81%	66.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0376
IFS HRES	67%	65.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1116
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901
ICON	48%	63.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2735
National Blend	41%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.3481

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗