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KOMA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
88%
EPS
81%
AIFS
81%
HRES
67%
ICON
48%
Consensus
70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 68.1¢Risks 68.10u
VS
ICONNO 31.9¢Risks 31.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.90u · ICON −31.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 81.8% · 2026-10-17T04:41:59+00:00AIFS Single: 81.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00AIFS Single: 81.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00AIFS Single: 81.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00AIFS Single: 80.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00AIFS Single: 80.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T04:41:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.5% · 2026-10-17T04:41:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.5% · 2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.5% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.5% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T04:41:59+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00IFS HRES: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00IFS HRES: 66.6% · 2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00IFS HRES: 66.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 66.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00IFS HRES: 66.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS HRES: 66.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS HRES: 66.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00IFS HRES: 66.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00IFS HRES: 66.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00IFS HRES: 66.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00IFS HRES: 66.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-17T04:41:59+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00ICON: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:59+00:0081.8%77.8%82.5%64.3%40.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:0081.8%77.8%84.9%64.3%40.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:0081.8%77.8%84.9%64.3%40.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:0081.8%77.8%84.9%64.3%40.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:0082.6%77.8%84.9%66.6%47.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:0082.6%77.8%84.9%66.6%47.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:0082.6%77.8%84.9%66.6%47.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:0082.6%77.8%84.9%66.6%47.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:0082.6%77.8%84.9%66.6%47.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:0082.6%81.2%88.5%66.6%47.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:0082.6%81.2%88.5%66.6%47.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:0082.6%81.2%88.5%66.6%47.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:0080.5%81.2%88.5%66.6%47.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:0080.6%80.8%88.5%66.6%47.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 288%67.0°F2.9°F2026-10-17 00:000.0132
IFS Ensemble81%67.5°F4.6°F2026-10-17 00:000.0369
AIFS Single81%66.9°F3.9°F2026-10-17 06:000.0376
IFS HRES67%65.1°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:000.1116
NWS forecast56%64.0°F3.1°F2026-10-17 03:000.1901
ICON48%63.3°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.2735
National Blend41%63.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 06:000.3481

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗