KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

55%

45%

27%

15%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.8¢Risks 35.80u

ICONNO 64.2¢Risks 64.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.20u · ICON −64.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	15.2%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	0.4%	57.4%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	78.1%	46.5%	1.9%	—	52.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	69.0%	6.6%	36.4%	—	42.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	46.9%	36.5%	25.1%	—	39.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	23.0%	35.9%	15.4%	—	23.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	39.3%	7.1%	12.0%	—	20.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	1.0%	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	20.8%	2.3%	14.6%	—	19.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	13.5%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	9.0%	33.0%	8.3%	—	16.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	19.6%	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	12.1%	30.4%	13.1%	—	13.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	14.6%	21.1%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	15.1%	31.2%	18.3%	—	11.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	19.0%	52.1%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	22.1%	58.7%	17.6%	0.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	22.3%	52.2%	0.0%	—	10.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	17.5%	50.0%	8.1%	21.5%	10.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	16.0%	50.0%	9.7%	—	11.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	28.7%	41.3%	9.5%	—	13.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	29.1%	30.2%	6.4%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	22.0%	26.2%	6.1%	24.0%	6.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	51.4%	9.8%	4.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	61.4%	18.2%	3.5%	10.8%	11.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	47.0%	15.3%	2.7%	—	5.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	46.8%	26.3%	3.1%	8.9%	14.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	70.5%	45.1%	17.0%	—	30.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0625
AIFS Single	56%	68.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1892
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.2016
IFS Ensemble	55%	68.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2025
WeatherNext 2	45%	67.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2992
IFS HRES	27%	64.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5285
ICON	15%	63.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.7208

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗