KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

55%

45%

27%

15%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.8¢Risks 35.80u

ICONNO 64.2¢Risks 64.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.20u · ICON −64.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:30+00:00	56.9%	57.4%	43.6%	28.8%	19.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	56.9%	57.4%	52.1%	28.8%	19.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	56.9%	57.4%	52.1%	28.8%	19.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	56.9%	57.4%	52.1%	28.8%	19.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	52.8%	57.4%	52.1%	28.8%	15.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	52.8%	57.4%	52.1%	28.8%	15.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	52.8%	57.4%	52.1%	28.8%	15.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	52.8%	57.4%	52.1%	28.8%	15.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	52.8%	57.4%	52.1%	28.8%	15.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	52.8%	55.0%	45.3%	28.8%	15.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	52.8%	55.0%	45.3%	28.8%	15.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	52.8%	55.0%	45.3%	28.8%	15.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:43+00:00	56.5%	55.0%	45.3%	27.3%	15.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	56.5%	55.0%	45.3%	27.3%	15.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0625
AIFS Single	56%	68.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1892
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.2016
IFS Ensemble	55%	68.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2025
WeatherNext 2	45%	67.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2992
IFS HRES	27%	64.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5285
ICON	15%	63.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.7208

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗