KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

37%

33%

20%

14%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.0¢Risks 31.00u

ICONNO 69.0¢Risks 69.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.00u · ICON −69.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	23.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	11.7%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	0.2%	50.7%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	72.5%	39.6%	1.2%	—	45.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	62.3%	4.6%	29.7%	—	35.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	39.4%	29.6%	19.5%	—	32.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	17.4%	28.8%	11.1%	—	17.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	31.5%	4.7%	8.3%	—	14.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	0.5%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	15.1%	1.3%	10.1%	—	14.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	9.2%	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	5.8%	25.1%	5.3%	—	11.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	13.7%	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	7.9%	22.5%	8.6%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	9.6%	14.6%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	9.8%	22.7%	12.3%	—	7.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	12.7%	41.6%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	14.9%	47.8%	11.4%	0.0%	6.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	14.8%	41.0%	0.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	11.0%	38.5%	4.5%	14.0%	5.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	9.7%	38.1%	5.5%	—	6.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	19.1%	29.8%	5.2%	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	19.1%	20.0%	3.2%	—	4.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	13.4%	16.5%	3.0%	14.9%	3.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	37.7%	5.0%	2.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	47.1%	10.2%	1.5%	5.5%	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	32.5%	8.0%	1.0%	—	2.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	31.7%	15.2%	1.2%	4.1%	7.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	54.9%	29.5%	8.6%	—	18.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1689
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.2016
AIFS Single	48%	68.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2694
IFS Ensemble	37%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3919
WeatherNext 2	33%	67.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4516
IFS HRES	20%	64.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6432
ICON	14%	64.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.7413

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗