KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

37%

33%

20%

14%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.0¢Risks 31.00u

ICONNO 69.0¢Risks 69.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.00u · ICON −69.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:21+00:00	29.3%	46.8%	32.4%	12.7%	26.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	29.3%	46.8%	32.4%	12.7%	26.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	29.3%	46.8%	32.4%	12.7%	26.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	29.3%	46.8%	32.4%	12.7%	26.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	29.3%	46.8%	32.4%	12.7%	26.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00	29.3%	46.8%	32.4%	12.7%	26.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	48.3%	46.8%	32.4%	22.4%	14.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	48.3%	46.8%	32.4%	22.4%	14.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	48.3%	46.8%	32.4%	22.4%	14.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	48.3%	46.8%	32.4%	22.4%	14.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	48.3%	46.8%	33.4%	22.4%	14.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	48.3%	46.8%	33.4%	22.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	48.3%	46.8%	33.4%	22.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:46+00:00	48.3%	46.8%	33.4%	22.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	48.3%	46.8%	33.4%	22.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	48.3%	46.8%	33.4%	22.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	48.3%	46.8%	33.4%	22.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00	47.2%	37.5%	33.9%	20.4%	9.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	47.2%	37.4%	33.9%	20.4%	9.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	47.2%	37.4%	33.9%	20.4%	9.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	47.2%	37.4%	45.3%	20.4%	9.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	47.2%	37.4%	45.3%	20.4%	9.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	47.2%	37.4%	45.3%	20.4%	9.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:08+00:00	42.6%	37.4%	45.3%	20.4%	13.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	42.6%	37.4%	45.3%	20.4%	13.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	42.6%	37.4%	45.3%	20.4%	13.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	42.6%	37.4%	45.3%	20.4%	13.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	42.6%	37.4%	45.3%	19.8%	13.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	42.6%	37.4%	32.8%	19.8%	13.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	42.6%	37.4%	32.8%	19.8%	13.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	42.6%	37.4%	32.8%	19.8%	13.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	48.1%	37.4%	32.8%	19.8%	13.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	48.1%	37.4%	32.8%	19.8%	13.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	48.1%	37.4%	32.8%	19.8%	13.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	48.1%	37.4%	32.8%	19.8%	13.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1689
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.2016
AIFS Single	48%	68.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2694
IFS Ensemble	37%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3919
WeatherNext 2	33%	67.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4516
IFS HRES	20%	64.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6432
ICON	14%	64.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.7413

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗