KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

19%

18%

15%

10%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 16.0¢Risks 7.98u

WN2NO 84.0¢Risks 42.02u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.02u · WN2 −42.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:35+00:00	26.0%	41.3%	21.0%	58.7%	5.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	26.0%	40.3%	21.0%	58.7%	5.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	26.0%	40.3%	21.0%	58.7%	5.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	24.8%	40.3%	21.0%	58.7%	5.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	24.9%	40.3%	21.0%	58.7%	5.2%
2026-10-12T15:27:32+00:00	24.9%	40.3%	21.0%	58.7%	5.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	24.9%	42.5%	21.0%	58.7%	5.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	24.9%	42.5%	19.9%	58.7%	5.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	24.9%	42.5%	19.9%	58.7%	5.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	24.9%	42.5%	19.9%	58.7%	5.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	24.9%	42.5%	19.9%	58.7%	5.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	18.2%	42.5%	19.9%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	18.2%	42.5%	19.9%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	18.2%	42.5%	19.9%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	18.2%	42.5%	19.9%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	18.2%	42.5%	21.6%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	18.2%	42.5%	21.6%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	18.2%	42.5%	21.6%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	18.2%	42.5%	21.6%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	26.7%	42.5%	21.6%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	26.7%	42.5%	21.6%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	26.7%	42.5%	21.6%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-13T04:16:08+00:00	26.7%	42.5%	21.6%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	26.7%	42.5%	19.3%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	26.7%	42.5%	19.3%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	26.7%	42.5%	19.3%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	26.7%	42.5%	19.3%	33.5%	65.3%
2026-10-13T08:03:45+00:00	29.2%	42.5%	19.3%	28.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	29.2%	42.5%	19.3%	28.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	29.2%	42.5%	19.3%	28.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	29.2%	42.5%	19.3%	28.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00	29.2%	26.3%	18.5%	28.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	29.2%	26.3%	18.5%	28.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	29.2%	26.3%	18.5%	28.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	29.2%	26.3%	18.5%	28.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	23.7%	26.3%	18.5%	28.6%	57.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	23.7%	29.4%	18.5%	28.6%	57.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:41+00:00	23.7%	29.4%	18.5%	28.6%	57.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	23.7%	29.4%	18.5%	28.6%	57.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	23.7%	29.4%	20.3%	28.6%	57.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	23.7%	29.4%	20.3%	28.6%	57.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	23.7%	29.4%	20.3%	28.6%	57.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	26.7%	29.4%	20.3%	28.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	26.7%	29.4%	20.3%	28.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	26.7%	29.4%	20.3%	28.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	26.7%	29.4%	20.3%	28.6%	39.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	26.7%	29.4%	20.3%	30.7%	39.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	26.7%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	39.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	26.7%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	39.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	26.7%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	39.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	24.3%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	39.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	24.3%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	39.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:56+00:00	24.3%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	39.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00	24.3%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	39.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	24.3%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	39.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	24.3%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	39.9%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	24.3%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	39.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	24.3%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	39.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	16.6%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	15.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	16.6%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	15.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	16.6%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	15.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	16.6%	29.3%	22.9%	30.7%	15.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:42+00:00	16.6%	29.3%	22.9%	18.8%	15.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	16.6%	22.0%	9.9%	18.8%	15.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	16.6%	22.0%	9.9%	18.8%	15.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	16.6%	22.0%	9.9%	18.8%	15.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	17.6%	22.0%	9.9%	18.8%	15.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	17.7%	22.0%	9.9%	18.8%	15.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	20%	70.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	67.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	67.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	15%	66.4°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗