KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

19%

18%

15%

10%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 16.0¢Risks 7.98u

WN2NO 84.0¢Risks 42.02u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.02u · WN2 −42.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	3.2%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	0.0%	25.4%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	45.8%	16.6%	0.1%	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	33.7%	0.8%	10.3%	—	13.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	15.1%	9.7%	5.2%	—	11.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	4.1%	8.7%	2.2%	—	4.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	9.3%	0.6%	1.3%	—	3.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.0%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	2.8%	0.1%	1.6%	—	2.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.3%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.6%	5.5%	0.5%	—	1.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	2.1%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.8%	4.2%	1.0%	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	1.1%	2.0%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.0%	3.8%	1.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.4%	10.1%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.6%	12.5%	1.1%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.5%	8.7%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.8%	7.2%	0.2%	1.2%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.6%	6.6%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.7%	3.7%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.5%	1.6%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.7%	1.0%	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.3%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	6.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.4%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.3%	1.4%	0.1%	—	0.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2894
IFS Ensemble	22%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0484
National Blend	20%	70.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0404
IFS HRES	19%	67.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0353
AIFS Single	18%	67.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0313
ICON	15%	66.4°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0231
WeatherNext 2	10%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0098

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗