KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.7¢Risks 3.85u

WN2NO 92.3¢Risks 46.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.15u · WN2 −46.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:37+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	4.3%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	4.3%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	4.3%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	4.3%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	4.3%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:36+00:00	4.3%	10.8%	2.2%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	4.3%	9.7%	2.2%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	4.3%	9.7%	2.2%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	4.0%	9.7%	2.2%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	4.1%	9.7%	2.2%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T15:27:32+00:00	4.1%	9.7%	2.2%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	4.1%	11.0%	2.2%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	4.1%	11.0%	2.0%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	4.1%	11.0%	2.0%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	4.1%	11.0%	2.0%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	4.1%	11.0%	2.0%	23.4%	1.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	2.4%	11.0%	2.0%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	2.4%	11.0%	2.0%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	2.4%	11.0%	2.0%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	2.4%	11.0%	2.0%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	2.4%	11.0%	2.3%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	2.4%	11.0%	2.3%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	2.4%	11.0%	2.3%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	2.4%	11.0%	2.3%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	4.5%	11.0%	2.3%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	4.5%	11.0%	2.3%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	4.5%	11.0%	2.3%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-13T04:16:08+00:00	4.5%	11.0%	2.3%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	4.5%	11.0%	1.9%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	4.5%	11.0%	1.9%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	4.5%	11.0%	1.9%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	4.5%	11.0%	1.9%	8.5%	41.6%
2026-10-13T08:03:45+00:00	4.7%	11.0%	1.9%	7.0%	24.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	4.7%	11.0%	1.9%	7.0%	24.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	4.7%	11.0%	1.9%	7.0%	24.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	4.7%	11.0%	1.9%	7.0%	24.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00	4.7%	2.3%	1.4%	7.0%	24.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	4.7%	2.3%	1.4%	7.0%	24.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	4.7%	2.3%	1.4%	7.0%	24.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	4.7%	2.3%	1.4%	7.0%	24.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	3.2%	2.3%	1.4%	7.0%	25.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	3.2%	2.9%	1.4%	7.0%	25.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:41+00:00	3.2%	2.9%	1.4%	7.0%	25.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	3.2%	2.9%	1.4%	7.0%	25.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	3.2%	2.9%	1.6%	7.0%	25.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	3.2%	2.9%	1.6%	7.0%	25.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	3.2%	2.9%	1.6%	7.0%	25.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	4.0%	2.9%	1.6%	7.0%	13.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	4.0%	2.9%	1.6%	7.0%	13.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	4.0%	2.9%	1.6%	7.0%	13.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	4.0%	2.9%	1.6%	7.0%	13.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	4.0%	2.9%	1.6%	7.8%	13.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	4.0%	2.8%	2.0%	7.8%	13.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	4.0%	2.8%	2.0%	7.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	4.0%	2.8%	2.0%	7.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	3.4%	2.8%	2.0%	7.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	3.4%	2.8%	2.0%	7.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:56+00:00	3.4%	2.8%	2.0%	7.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00	3.4%	2.8%	2.0%	7.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	3.4%	2.8%	2.0%	7.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	3.4%	2.8%	2.0%	7.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	3.4%	2.8%	2.0%	7.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	3.4%	2.8%	2.0%	7.8%	13.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	14%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
ICON	13%	70.7°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	69.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	68.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	70.1°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	69.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	71.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗