WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KOMA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 79°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 06:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
13%
HRES
8%
AIFS
3%
EPS
3%
WN2
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 7.7¢Risks 3.85u
VS
WN2NO 92.3¢Risks 46.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.15u · WN2 −46.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 12:0010-12 06:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:003.4%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:000.8%————2.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:002.3%————3.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:005.8%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:000.5%————2.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0034.9%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.2%————3.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0027.4%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.6%————2.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:002.3%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:001.9%————1.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:003.4%————2.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.1%————4.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:001.1%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.9%————7.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:002.2%————7.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:002.5%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:001.2%————10.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:002.7%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:001.8%—0.0%——5.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:001.3%—1.2%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:001.3%————5.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:002.2%—4.2%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:003.0%—0.2%——4.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:004.8%—9.4%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:001.1%0.0%4.7%——4.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.9%—2.4%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.4%12.2%2.1%0.0%—3.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.8%—0.0%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:001.1%6.4%0.0%0.9%—1.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.6%—0.3%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.7%1.5%0.7%0.3%—0.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.4%—0.8%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%0.5%0.1%—0.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.2%—1.2%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.5%0.0%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.2%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast14%73.0°F5.2°F2026-10-14 02:000.0204
ICON13%70.7°F7.0°F2026-10-13 12:000.0180
IFS HRES8%69.2°F6.6°F2026-10-13 12:000.0061
AIFS Single3%68.8°F5.3°F2026-10-13 18:000.0012
IFS Ensemble3%70.1°F4.4°F2026-10-13 00:000.0008
WeatherNext 22%69.1°F4.6°F2026-10-13 12:000.0004
National Blend<1%71.0°F3.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗