KOMA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

61%

38%

29%

26%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.6¢Risks 43.60u

HRESNO 56.4¢Risks 56.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.40u · HRES −56.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	3.5%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	57.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	20.7%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	0.8%	23.3%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	82.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	47.9%	28.6%	0.0%	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	39.9%	12.8%	8.2%	—	25.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	45.4%	2.8%	22.2%	—	28.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	16.9%	38.2%	15.4%	—	21.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	25.8%	28.6%	17.3%	—	24.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	3.3%	20.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	16.7%	50.9%	5.2%	—	22.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	14.0%	45.5%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	11.9%	45.4%	8.3%	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	33.5%	43.4%	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	36.6%	50.0%	9.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	29.1%	44.0%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	33.0%	44.9%	5.5%	—	15.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	45.8%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	47.8%	33.1%	4.5%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	37.8%	42.2%	0.0%	—	14.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	31.0%	36.3%	1.4%	0.0%	12.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	56.0%	35.9%	4.0%	—	14.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	57.4%	35.4%	4.0%	70.2%	15.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	39.8%	3.2%	—	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	62%	75.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	75.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	73.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	29%	72.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	71.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗