KOMA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

61%

38%

29%

26%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.6¢Risks 43.60u

HRESNO 56.4¢Risks 56.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.40u · HRES −56.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:22+00:00	53.7%	25.5%	50.9%	35.2%	62.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	53.7%	25.5%	50.9%	35.2%	62.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	53.7%	25.5%	56.0%	35.2%	62.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	53.7%	25.5%	56.0%	35.2%	62.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	53.7%	25.5%	56.0%	35.2%	62.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00	53.7%	25.5%	56.0%	35.2%	62.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	50.0%	25.5%	56.0%	33.0%	66.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	50.0%	25.5%	56.0%	33.0%	66.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	50.0%	25.5%	56.0%	33.0%	66.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	50.0%	25.5%	56.0%	33.0%	66.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	50.0%	25.5%	65.0%	33.0%	66.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	50.0%	25.5%	65.0%	33.0%	66.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	50.0%	25.5%	65.0%	33.0%	66.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:46+00:00	48.5%	25.5%	65.0%	33.0%	66.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	48.5%	25.5%	65.0%	33.0%	66.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	48.5%	25.5%	65.0%	33.0%	66.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	48.5%	25.5%	65.0%	33.0%	66.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:01+00:00	48.4%	34.8%	63.3%	30.2%	47.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	48.4%	34.8%	66.9%	30.2%	47.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	48.4%	34.8%	66.9%	30.2%	47.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	48.4%	34.8%	66.9%	30.2%	47.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00	51.7%	34.8%	66.9%	27.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	51.7%	34.8%	66.9%	27.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	51.7%	34.8%	66.9%	27.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	51.7%	34.8%	66.9%	27.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	51.7%	34.8%	66.9%	27.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	51.7%	37.3%	64.7%	27.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	51.7%	37.3%	64.7%	27.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	51.7%	37.3%	64.7%	27.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	49.1%	37.3%	64.7%	27.4%	28.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	49.1%	37.3%	64.6%	27.4%	29.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:16+00:00	54.3%	33.9%	45.7%	26.1%	24.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	54.3%	33.9%	61.6%	26.1%	24.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	54.3%	33.9%	61.6%	26.1%	24.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	54.3%	33.9%	61.6%	26.1%	24.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	54.3%	33.9%	61.6%	26.1%	24.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:28+00:00	57.4%	33.9%	61.6%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	57.4%	33.9%	61.6%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	57.4%	33.9%	61.6%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	57.4%	33.9%	61.6%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:52+00:00	57.4%	32.9%	54.7%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	57.4%	32.9%	54.7%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	57.4%	32.9%	54.7%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	57.4%	32.9%	54.7%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	52.8%	33.4%	54.7%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	52.8%	33.4%	54.7%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	52.8%	33.0%	54.7%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	52.8%	33.0%	54.7%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	52.8%	33.0%	51.2%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	52.8%	33.0%	51.2%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	52.8%	33.0%	51.2%	30.3%	43.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	55.6%	33.0%	51.2%	26.5%	40.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	55.6%	33.0%	51.2%	26.5%	40.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	55.6%	33.0%	51.2%	26.5%	40.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	55.6%	33.0%	51.2%	26.5%	40.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	55.6%	33.0%	51.2%	26.5%	40.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	55.6%	33.0%	54.7%	26.5%	40.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	55.6%	33.0%	54.7%	26.5%	40.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00	55.6%	33.0%	54.7%	26.5%	40.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	58.3%	33.0%	54.7%	26.5%	40.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	58.3%	33.0%	54.7%	26.5%	40.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	58.3%	33.0%	54.7%	26.5%	40.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	58.3%	33.0%	54.7%	26.5%	40.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00	58.8%	37.9%	67.4%	30.4%	44.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	58.8%	37.9%	67.4%	30.4%	44.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	58.8%	37.9%	67.4%	30.4%	44.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	58.8%	37.9%	56.4%	30.4%	44.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	58.8%	37.9%	56.4%	30.4%	44.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	58.8%	37.9%	56.4%	30.4%	44.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	58.8%	37.9%	56.4%	25.5%	28.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	58.8%	37.9%	56.4%	25.5%	28.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	58.8%	37.9%	56.4%	25.5%	28.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	58.8%	37.9%	56.4%	25.5%	28.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	58.8%	37.9%	56.4%	25.5%	28.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	58.8%	37.9%	61.4%	25.5%	28.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	58.8%	37.9%	61.4%	25.5%	28.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	58.8%	37.9%	61.4%	25.5%	28.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	61.4%	25.5%	28.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	61.4%	25.5%	28.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	61.7%	37.9%	61.4%	25.5%	28.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	62%	75.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	75.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	73.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	29%	72.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	71.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗