KOMA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

50%

44%

27%

20%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.3¢Risks 41.35u

HRESNO 58.7¢Risks 58.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.65u · HRES −58.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	2.5%	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	16.4%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	45.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	0.5%	18.4%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	40.9%	23.0%	0.0%	—	9.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	33.0%	9.3%	5.7%	—	19.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	38.0%	1.8%	16.9%	—	22.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	12.3%	30.9%	11.1%	—	15.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	19.5%	21.9%	12.5%	—	18.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	2.0%	15.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	11.8%	42.2%	3.2%	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	9.6%	36.8%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	7.9%	36.4%	5.3%	—	12.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	25.3%	34.3%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	27.9%	40.4%	5.6%	—	12.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	21.1%	34.4%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	24.3%	34.9%	3.2%	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	35.5%	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	37.1%	23.8%	2.4%	—	11.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	27.6%	31.5%	0.0%	—	9.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	21.5%	26.0%	0.7%	0.0%	7.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	44.0%	25.3%	2.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	45.0%	24.6%	2.0%	58.7%	9.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	28.0%	1.5%	—	7.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	63%	78.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	76.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	75.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	74.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	72.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	70.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261021-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 76°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗