KOMA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

50%

44%

27%

20%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.3¢Risks 41.35u

HRESNO 58.7¢Risks 58.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.65u · HRES −58.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	38.8%	30.5%	51.6%	46.2%	14.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	38.8%	30.5%	51.6%	46.2%	14.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	38.8%	30.5%	51.6%	46.2%	14.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	61.9%	30.5%	51.6%	46.2%	14.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	61.9%	30.5%	51.6%	46.2%	14.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:27+00:00	61.9%	26.8%	51.6%	46.2%	14.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	61.9%	26.8%	51.6%	46.2%	14.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	61.9%	26.8%	51.6%	46.2%	14.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	61.9%	26.8%	50.8%	46.2%	14.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	61.9%	26.8%	50.8%	46.2%	14.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	61.9%	26.8%	50.8%	46.2%	14.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	44.3%	26.8%	50.8%	19.7%	63.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	44.3%	26.8%	50.8%	19.7%	63.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	44.3%	26.8%	50.8%	19.7%	63.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	44.3%	26.8%	50.8%	19.7%	63.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	44.3%	26.8%	50.8%	19.7%	63.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	44.3%	26.8%	44.4%	19.7%	63.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:01+00:00	44.3%	26.8%	44.4%	19.7%	63.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	44.3%	26.8%	44.4%	19.7%	63.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	50.0%	26.8%	44.4%	19.7%	63.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	50.0%	26.8%	44.4%	19.7%	63.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	50.0%	26.8%	44.4%	19.7%	63.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	63%	78.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	76.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	75.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	74.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	72.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	70.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261021-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 76°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗