KOMA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

25%

14%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 15.9¢Risks 15.90u

HRESNO 84.1¢Risks 84.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +84.10u · HRES −84.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:43+00:00	20.7%	24.2%	24.6%	28.5%	8.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	20.7%	12.5%	28.7%	28.5%	8.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	20.7%	12.5%	28.7%	28.5%	8.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	20.7%	12.5%	28.7%	28.5%	8.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	40.9%	12.5%	28.7%	28.5%	8.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	40.9%	12.5%	28.8%	28.5%	8.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:27+00:00	40.9%	11.1%	28.8%	28.5%	8.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	40.9%	11.1%	28.8%	28.5%	8.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	40.9%	11.1%	28.8%	28.5%	8.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	40.9%	11.1%	28.1%	28.5%	8.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	40.9%	11.1%	28.1%	28.5%	8.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	40.9%	11.1%	28.1%	28.5%	8.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	24.9%	11.1%	28.1%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	24.9%	11.1%	28.1%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	24.9%	11.1%	28.1%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	24.9%	11.1%	28.1%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	24.9%	11.1%	28.1%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	24.9%	11.1%	23.0%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-15T00:15:01+00:00	24.9%	11.1%	23.0%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	24.9%	11.1%	23.0%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	29.7%	11.1%	23.0%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	29.7%	11.1%	23.0%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	29.7%	11.1%	23.0%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:21+00:00	29.7%	11.1%	23.0%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	29.7%	11.1%	23.0%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	29.7%	11.1%	26.2%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	29.7%	11.1%	26.2%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	29.7%	11.1%	26.2%	9.3%	51.2%
2026-10-15T07:49:58+00:00	28.9%	11.1%	26.2%	16.2%	39.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	28.9%	11.1%	26.2%	16.2%	39.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	28.9%	11.1%	26.2%	16.2%	39.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	28.9%	11.1%	26.2%	16.2%	39.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:33+00:00	28.9%	11.1%	20.2%	16.2%	39.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	28.9%	11.1%	20.2%	16.2%	39.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	28.9%	7.6%	20.2%	16.2%	39.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:28+00:00	28.9%	7.6%	20.2%	16.2%	39.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	25.8%	7.6%	20.2%	16.2%	40.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	25.8%	7.6%	20.2%	16.2%	40.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:22+00:00	25.8%	6.5%	20.2%	16.2%	40.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	25.8%	6.5%	20.2%	16.2%	40.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	25.8%	6.5%	24.0%	16.2%	40.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	25.8%	6.5%	24.0%	16.2%	40.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	25.8%	6.5%	24.0%	16.2%	40.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00	25.8%	6.5%	24.0%	16.2%	40.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	22.9%	6.5%	24.0%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	22.9%	6.5%	24.0%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	22.9%	6.5%	24.0%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	22.9%	6.5%	24.0%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	22.9%	6.5%	31.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	22.9%	6.5%	31.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	22.9%	6.5%	31.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:46+00:00	21.8%	6.5%	31.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	21.8%	6.5%	31.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	21.8%	6.5%	31.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	21.8%	6.5%	31.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:32+00:00	21.8%	6.5%	31.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	21.8%	6.5%	30.4%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	21.8%	6.5%	30.4%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	21.8%	6.5%	30.4%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	19.9%	6.5%	30.4%	14.8%	15.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	19.9%	6.5%	30.4%	14.8%	15.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	19.9%	6.5%	30.4%	14.8%	15.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	19.9%	6.5%	30.4%	14.8%	15.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	19.9%	6.5%	30.4%	14.8%	15.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	19.9%	10.0%	28.8%	14.8%	15.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	19.9%	10.0%	28.8%	14.8%	15.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	19.9%	10.0%	28.8%	14.8%	15.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:43+00:00	17.2%	10.0%	28.8%	9.4%	15.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	17.2%	10.0%	28.8%	9.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T04:42:01+00:00	19.9%	8.6%	26.3%	11.3%	23.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	19.9%	8.6%	29.6%	11.3%	23.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	19.9%	8.6%	29.6%	11.3%	23.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	19.9%	8.6%	29.6%	11.3%	23.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:40+00:00	20.3%	8.6%	29.6%	8.1%	8.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	20.3%	8.6%	29.6%	8.1%	8.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	20.3%	8.6%	29.6%	8.1%	8.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	20.3%	8.6%	29.6%	8.1%	8.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	20.3%	8.6%	29.6%	8.1%	8.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	20.3%	9.3%	24.2%	8.1%	8.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	20.3%	9.3%	24.2%	8.1%	8.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	20.3%	9.3%	24.2%	8.1%	8.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	18.5%	9.3%	24.2%	8.1%	8.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	18.6%	9.3%	24.3%	8.1%	8.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:59+00:00	18.6%	8.2%	24.3%	8.1%	8.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	18.6%	8.2%	24.3%	8.1%	8.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	18.6%	8.2%	17.4%	8.1%	8.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	18.6%	8.2%	17.4%	8.1%	8.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	18.6%	8.2%	17.4%	8.1%	8.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	18.6%	8.2%	17.4%	8.1%	8.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	21.0%	8.2%	17.4%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	21.0%	8.2%	17.4%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	21.0%	8.2%	17.4%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	21.0%	8.2%	17.4%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	21.0%	8.2%	11.9%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	21.0%	8.2%	11.9%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	21.0%	8.2%	11.9%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	21.0%	8.2%	11.9%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	22.3%	8.2%	11.9%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	22.3%	8.2%	11.9%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	22.3%	8.2%	11.9%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-18T04:14:17+00:00	22.3%	8.2%	11.9%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	22.3%	8.2%	21.8%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	22.3%	8.2%	21.8%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	22.3%	8.2%	21.8%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	22.3%	8.2%	21.8%	7.5%	6.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:28+00:00	22.7%	8.2%	21.8%	7.9%	11.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	22.7%	8.2%	21.8%	7.9%	11.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	22.7%	8.2%	21.8%	7.9%	11.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	22.7%	8.2%	21.8%	7.9%	11.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:52+00:00	22.7%	7.7%	14.3%	7.9%	11.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	22.7%	7.7%	14.3%	7.9%	11.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	22.7%	7.7%	14.3%	7.9%	11.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	22.7%	7.7%	14.3%	7.9%	11.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	19.3%	8.4%	14.3%	7.9%	11.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	19.3%	8.4%	14.3%	7.9%	11.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	19.3%	7.8%	14.3%	7.9%	11.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	19.3%	7.8%	14.3%	7.9%	11.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	19.3%	7.8%	12.4%	7.9%	11.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	19.3%	7.8%	12.4%	7.9%	11.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	19.3%	7.8%	12.4%	7.9%	11.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	21.3%	7.8%	12.4%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	21.3%	7.8%	12.4%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	21.3%	7.8%	12.4%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	21.3%	7.8%	12.4%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	21.3%	7.8%	12.4%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	21.3%	7.8%	14.3%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	21.3%	7.8%	14.3%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00	21.3%	7.8%	14.3%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	23.4%	7.8%	14.3%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	23.4%	7.8%	14.3%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	23.4%	7.8%	14.3%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	23.4%	7.8%	14.3%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:05+00:00	23.4%	7.8%	14.3%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	23.4%	7.8%	25.7%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	23.4%	7.8%	25.7%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	23.4%	7.8%	25.7%	6.4%	10.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00	21.5%	7.8%	25.7%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	21.5%	7.8%	25.7%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	21.5%	7.8%	25.7%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	21.5%	7.8%	25.7%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	21.5%	7.8%	25.7%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00	21.5%	10.8%	20.1%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	21.5%	10.8%	20.1%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	21.5%	10.8%	20.1%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	22.3%	10.8%	20.1%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	22.1%	10.8%	20.1%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00	22.1%	11.7%	20.1%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	22.1%	11.7%	20.1%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	22.1%	11.7%	20.1%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	22.1%	11.7%	12.9%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	22.1%	11.7%	12.9%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	22.1%	11.7%	12.9%	6.8%	10.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	22.1%	11.7%	12.9%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	22.1%	11.7%	12.9%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	22.1%	11.7%	12.9%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	22.1%	11.7%	12.9%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	22.1%	11.7%	12.9%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	22.1%	11.7%	15.9%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	22.1%	11.7%	15.9%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	22.1%	11.7%	15.9%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	24.4%	11.7%	15.9%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	24.4%	11.7%	15.9%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	24.4%	11.7%	15.9%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00	24.4%	11.7%	15.9%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	24.4%	11.7%	15.9%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	24.4%	11.7%	27.0%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	24.4%	11.7%	27.0%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	24.4%	11.7%	27.0%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	26.2%	11.7%	27.0%	5.1%	9.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	26.2%	11.7%	27.0%	5.1%	9.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	26.2%	11.7%	27.0%	5.1%	9.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	26.2%	11.7%	27.0%	5.1%	9.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00	26.2%	13.5%	24.6%	5.6%	9.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	26.2%	13.5%	24.6%	5.6%	9.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	26.2%	13.5%	24.6%	5.6%	9.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	26.2%	13.5%	24.6%	5.6%	9.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	26.2%	13.5%	24.6%	5.6%	9.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	26.2%	13.5%	24.6%	5.6%	9.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	31%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	76.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	76.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	73.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	73.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261021-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗