KOMA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

25%

14%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 15.9¢Risks 15.90u

HRESNO 84.1¢Risks 84.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +84.10u · HRES −84.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	7.1%	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	0.1%	8.0%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	22.4%	10.2%	0.0%	—	3.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	16.1%	3.1%	1.7%	—	8.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	18.9%	0.4%	6.3%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	3.9%	13.6%	3.4%	—	5.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	6.9%	8.0%	3.8%	—	6.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	0.3%	4.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	3.2%	19.6%	0.6%	—	5.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	2.4%	15.5%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	1.8%	14.9%	1.0%	—	3.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	8.4%	13.2%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	9.4%	16.5%	1.0%	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	6.0%	12.4%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	7.1%	12.3%	0.4%	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	12.1%	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	12.5%	6.2%	0.3%	—	2.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	7.5%	9.2%	0.0%	—	1.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	4.8%	6.5%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	14.5%	5.8%	0.1%	—	1.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	14.4%	5.2%	0.1%	23.6%	1.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	6.0%	0.1%	—	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	31%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	76.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	76.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	73.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	73.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	74.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261021-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗