KOMA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

64%

27%

26%

24%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.0¢Risks 48.00u

HRESNO 52.0¢Risks 52.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.00u · HRES −52.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	23.6%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	0.1%	19.4%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	16.2%	15.3%	0.2%	—	11.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	16.1%	35.0%	0.2%	—	12.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	17.9%	48.5%	1.9%	—	16.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	11.9%	54.0%	3.3%	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	48.4%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	7.4%	43.4%	4.9%	—	12.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	7.0%	43.2%	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	24.8%	37.1%	11.3%	—	13.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	16.1%	26.4%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	17.2%	30.6%	8.6%	—	9.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	29.2%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	34.8%	26.3%	8.6%	—	11.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	26.5%	33.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	23.5%	30.3%	7.1%	—	6.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	36.5%	32.6%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	28.2%	25.5%	7.0%	36.1%	10.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	23.1%	0.0%	—	7.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	79.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	79.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	74.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	75.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	74.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	75.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗