KOMA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

66%

65%

60%

58%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 74.2¢Risks 74.20u

AIFSNO 25.8¢Risks 25.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +25.80u · AIFS −25.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T17:48:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:05+00:00	71.0%	44.1%	77.3%	42.2%	66.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	71.0%	44.1%	86.3%	42.2%	66.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	71.0%	44.1%	86.3%	42.2%	66.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	71.0%	44.1%	86.3%	42.2%	66.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00	77.9%	44.1%	86.3%	55.5%	81.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	77.9%	44.1%	86.3%	55.5%	81.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	77.9%	44.1%	86.3%	55.5%	81.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	77.9%	44.1%	86.3%	55.5%	81.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	77.9%	44.1%	86.3%	55.5%	81.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00	77.9%	50.9%	92.1%	55.5%	81.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	77.9%	50.9%	92.1%	55.5%	81.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	77.9%	50.9%	92.1%	55.5%	81.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	70.0%	50.9%	92.1%	55.5%	81.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	70.1%	50.9%	92.1%	55.5%	81.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00	66.5%	52.8%	78.9%	44.5%	78.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	66.5%	52.8%	78.9%	44.5%	78.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	66.5%	52.8%	92.4%	44.5%	78.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	66.5%	52.8%	92.4%	44.5%	78.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	66.5%	52.8%	92.4%	44.5%	78.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	55.2%	52.8%	92.4%	44.5%	90.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	55.2%	52.8%	92.4%	44.5%	90.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	55.2%	52.8%	92.4%	44.5%	90.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	55.2%	52.8%	92.4%	44.5%	90.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00	55.2%	59.8%	84.0%	64.8%	90.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	55.2%	59.8%	84.0%	64.8%	90.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	55.2%	59.8%	84.0%	64.8%	90.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	55.2%	59.8%	84.0%	64.8%	90.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:21+00:00	55.2%	59.8%	84.0%	64.8%	90.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	55.2%	59.8%	84.0%	64.8%	90.6%
2026-10-20T15:32:13+00:00	55.2%	59.8%	84.0%	64.8%	90.6%
2026-10-20T16:18:00+00:00	55.2%	59.8%	84.0%	64.8%	90.6%
2026-10-20T17:03:26+00:00	57.8%	59.8%	65.7%	64.8%	90.6%
2026-10-20T17:48:39+00:00	57.8%	59.8%	65.7%	64.8%	90.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	80.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	76.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	75.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	75.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	74.0°F	7.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗