KOMA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

66%

65%

60%

58%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 74.2¢Risks 74.20u

AIFSNO 25.8¢Risks 25.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +25.80u · AIFS −25.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	77.4%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	1.6%	19.8%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	64.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	6.5%	70.8%	1.0%	—	24.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	48.5%	14.4%	15.2%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	45.4%	38.0%	7.3%	—	15.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	70.5%	57.9%	28.8%	—	28.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	67.8%	78.1%	29.3%	—	23.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	52.6%	42.4%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	84.9%	49.1%	38.8%	73.1%	36.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	64.9%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	81.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	80.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	76.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	75.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	75.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	74.0°F	7.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗