KOMA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

68%

49%

40%

38%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 59.9¢Risks 59.85u

AIFSNO 40.1¢Risks 40.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +40.15u · AIFS −40.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00	66.2%	36.8%	36.4%	22.9%	15.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	66.2%	36.8%	36.4%	22.9%	15.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	66.2%	36.8%	36.4%	22.9%	15.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	66.2%	36.8%	36.4%	22.9%	15.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	66.2%	36.8%	36.4%	22.9%	15.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	66.2%	37.5%	73.5%	22.9%	15.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	66.2%	37.5%	73.5%	22.9%	15.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	66.2%	37.5%	73.5%	22.9%	15.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	50.7%	37.5%	73.5%	22.9%	15.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	50.7%	37.5%	73.4%	22.8%	15.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:02+00:00	50.7%	35.2%	73.4%	22.8%	15.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	50.7%	35.2%	73.4%	22.8%	15.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	50.7%	35.2%	46.1%	22.8%	15.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	50.7%	35.2%	46.1%	22.8%	15.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	50.7%	35.2%	46.1%	22.8%	15.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	50.7%	35.2%	46.1%	22.8%	15.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	45.2%	35.2%	46.1%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	45.2%	35.2%	46.1%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	45.2%	35.2%	46.1%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	45.2%	35.2%	46.1%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	45.2%	35.2%	45.3%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	45.2%	35.2%	45.3%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	45.2%	35.2%	45.3%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	45.2%	35.2%	45.3%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	56.2%	35.2%	45.3%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	56.2%	35.2%	45.3%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	56.2%	35.2%	45.3%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:17+00:00	56.2%	35.2%	45.3%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	56.2%	35.2%	65.9%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	56.2%	35.2%	65.9%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	56.2%	35.2%	65.9%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	56.2%	35.2%	65.9%	32.1%	27.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:28+00:00	60.9%	35.2%	65.9%	15.9%	58.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	60.9%	35.2%	65.9%	15.9%	58.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	60.9%	35.2%	65.9%	15.9%	58.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	60.9%	35.2%	65.9%	15.9%	58.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:52+00:00	60.9%	30.4%	67.3%	15.9%	58.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	60.9%	30.4%	67.3%	15.9%	58.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	60.9%	30.4%	67.3%	15.9%	58.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	60.9%	30.4%	67.3%	15.9%	58.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	50.7%	30.6%	67.4%	15.9%	58.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:06+00:00	57.3%	30.0%	62.6%	30.9%	56.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	57.3%	30.0%	74.7%	30.9%	56.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	57.3%	30.0%	74.7%	30.9%	56.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	57.3%	30.0%	74.7%	30.9%	56.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00	64.2%	30.0%	74.7%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	64.2%	30.0%	74.7%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	64.2%	30.0%	74.7%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	64.2%	30.0%	74.7%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	64.2%	30.0%	74.7%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:03+00:00	64.2%	32.5%	82.2%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	64.2%	32.5%	82.2%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	64.2%	32.5%	82.2%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	54.8%	32.5%	82.2%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	54.8%	32.5%	82.2%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00	54.8%	34.3%	82.2%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	54.8%	34.3%	82.2%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	54.8%	34.3%	82.2%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	54.8%	34.3%	61.5%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	54.8%	34.3%	61.5%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	54.8%	34.3%	61.5%	41.8%	71.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	52.4%	34.3%	61.5%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	52.4%	34.3%	61.5%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	52.4%	34.3%	61.5%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	52.4%	34.3%	61.5%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	52.4%	34.3%	61.5%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	52.4%	34.3%	62.4%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	52.4%	34.3%	62.4%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	52.4%	34.3%	62.4%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	50.8%	34.3%	62.4%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	50.8%	34.3%	62.4%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	50.8%	34.3%	62.4%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00	50.8%	34.3%	62.4%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	50.8%	34.3%	62.4%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	50.8%	34.3%	82.9%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	50.8%	34.3%	82.9%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	50.8%	34.3%	82.9%	31.4%	68.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	38.0%	34.3%	82.9%	31.4%	81.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	38.0%	34.3%	82.9%	31.4%	81.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	38.0%	34.3%	82.9%	31.4%	81.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	38.0%	34.3%	82.9%	31.4%	81.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00	38.0%	40.2%	67.6%	49.2%	81.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	38.0%	40.2%	67.6%	49.2%	81.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	38.0%	40.2%	67.6%	49.2%	81.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	38.0%	40.2%	67.6%	49.2%	81.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	82%	80.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	78.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	76.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	75.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	75.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	37%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	74.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗