KOMA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

68%

49%

40%

38%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 59.9¢Risks 59.85u

AIFSNO 40.1¢Risks 40.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +40.15u · AIFS −40.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	66.4%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	0.6%	11.8%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	3.1%	57.7%	0.4%	—	14.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	34.3%	7.6%	8.2%	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	30.9%	24.5%	3.3%	—	7.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	55.6%	42.1%	16.9%	—	16.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	51.7%	63.9%	16.8%	—	12.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	35.8%	26.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	72.4%	32.2%	23.4%	57.0%	21.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	47.3%	—	—	15.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	82%	80.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	78.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	76.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	75.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	75.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	37%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	74.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗