KOMA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

51%

50%

26%

24%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.1¢Risks 39.10u

EPSNO 60.9¢Risks 60.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.90u · EPS −60.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	60.3%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	0.4%	8.8%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	2.1%	50.7%	0.2%	—	11.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	27.9%	5.3%	5.7%	—	7.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	24.5%	18.9%	2.1%	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	47.6%	34.5%	12.3%	—	11.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	43.4%	55.8%	12.0%	—	9.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	28.1%	20.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	64.6%	24.8%	17.2%	48.2%	15.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	38.5%	—	—	10.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	54%	78.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	51%	77.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	77.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	75.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	73.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	73.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗