KOMA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

71%

65%

47%

15%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.0¢Risks 45.95u

AIFSNO 54.0¢Risks 54.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.05u · AIFS −54.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	46.4%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	—	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	39.7%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	18.0%	3.2%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	78.1%	6.9%	4.9%	—	48.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	79.0%	35.0%	62.9%	—	45.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	87.8%	22.8%	25.8%	—	43.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	54.8%	27.4%	30.1%	97.8%	20.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	5.1%	—	—	21.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	73.4°F	8.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	71%	70.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	69.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	68.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	62.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗